Giga Chikadze (15-6) vs. Joanderson Brito (19-5-1)
- 1 · Buy22¢YES Chikadze, Kalshi ask at 6:30 AM PT
- 2 · Sell35¢Sell order set before the fight
- 3 · If 35¢ never tradesHoldHold to settlement, $1 or $0
See the full strategy and live odds
Sports prediction markets, traded like a quant
Buy low. Sell high. You don't need the upset to get paid.
I buy sports contracts below what I think they're worth, set my sell price before the event starts, and cash out when the market moves my way. The plan locks before the event, and every exit and every miss gets posted.
Entry, target and fallback shown up front
Misses stay on the record
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Watch the BTC small-window desk
Today's plan · free
Featured trade
Plan locked before the fight. Graded on Kalshi prices, whatever happens.
UFC 331 · Free tradeKalshiSat, Sep 19 · Crypto.com Arena, LA
Buy Giga, sell at 35¢
Giga Chikadze (15-6) vs. Joanderson Brito (19-5-1) · Featherweight · early prelims opener
Buy22¢YES Chikadze, Kalshi ask at 6:30 AM PT
Sell order35¢Resting at 35¢ before the fight
If 35¢ never tradesHoldSettles at $1 or $0
Buy 22¢
Sell 35¢
0¢10¢20¢30¢40¢50¢
The thesis: Giga opened at +319 (22¢ on Kalshi). In 21 pro fights he has never lost in the first round, and in his last fight he was winning the exchanges before one spinning backfist caught him. He's fighting about an hour from his Huntington Beach gym. If he takes the early minutes, a +319 dog gets repriced fast. I sell into that at 35¢ and I'm out, whoever wins.
Locked Sat, Sep 19, 2026, 6:30 AM PT (13:30 UTC), before the card. Buy price, sell target and hold rule can't change after this.
What 100 contracts do
Sell order fills at 35¢+$10.19+44% after fees · +59% before fees
No fill, Giga wins+$76.79Settles at $1 per contract
No fill, Giga loses−$23.21The most 100 contracts can lose
Know before you copy it
Run your own numbers
Full fight breakdown and live odds
- Cost is $22 plus a $1.21 fee. Selling at 35¢ costs a $1.60 fee. Fees use Kalshi's taker formula.
- The opener of a card can trade thin. A 35¢ sell order may not fill even if the price touches it.
- A first-round finish can take the price to 0¢ before you can react. Size it as money you can lose.
Between plans
Next plan posts in the Morning Board
The UFC 331 plan has settled and its result goes to the public record. The next plan, with its buy price, sell target and hold rule, goes out by 8am ET before it locks.
Market of the Day · about 3 minutes
Your number first, then ours
One real market a day. Write down what you think it's worth before you see our number or the price. No bet, no deposit: it's practice at pricing, which is the whole game.
1Log your fair value
UFC 331 · Kalshi · Sat, Sep 19Will Giga Chikadze beat Joanderson Brito?
Featherweight, early prelims opener. Chikadze has lost three straight; Brito is the heavy favorite. What's the chance Chikadze wins, in percent?
2The reveal
Our number and the market price stay hidden until you log yours
That's the point: an estimate you make after seeing the price isn't yours.
Checking Kalshi's price.
Why 23%: it's BetOnline's opening line (Chikadze +319, Brito −400) with the bookmaker's margin taken out, which is the cleanest outside number we have.
At 22¢, Kalshi agrees within a point, so buying YES and holding to the end has almost no edge on the result.
The edge in our plan is movement instead: a +300 underdog who wins early exchanges can trade well above 22¢ live, and the 35¢ sell order is set to catch that.
Between markets
The next Market of the Day posts with the Morning Board at 8am ET
Yesterday's market was the UFC 331 opener. Your past estimates stay saved on this device.
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Fight night board
UFC 331 odds
Saturday, Sept 19 · Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles. Kalshi price for each fighter next to the sportsbook line.
Main card
Joshua Van 58¢ · −132
Alexandre Pantoja 43¢ · +113
Arman Tsarukyan 73¢ · −350
Maurício Ruffy 28¢ · +284
Patrício Pitbull 29¢ · +228
Choi Doo-ho 72¢ · −275
Gable Steveson 93¢ · −2000
Sean Sharaf 8¢ · +1062
Alonzo Menifield 32¢ · +197
Iwo Baraniewski 69¢ · −235
Prelims
Marlon Vera 35¢ · +182
Charles Jourdain 66¢ · −216
Tai Tuivasa 20¢ · +512
Robelis Despaigne 81¢ · −700
Michael Aswell Jr. 36¢ · +220
Yoo Joo-sang 65¢ · −265
Ryan Gandra 82¢ · −475
Osman Diaz 19¢ · +371
Early prelims
Edmen Shahbazyan 63¢ · −156
Brunno Ferreira 38¢ · +133
Casey O'Neill 68¢ · −190
Eduarda Moura 33¢ · +161
Giga Chikadze 22¢ · +319
Joanderson Brito 79¢ · −400
Kalshi prices (last trade, ¢) as of Sat, Sept 19, 6:30 AM PT. Sportsbook odds are BetOnline's opening lines from Sept 15, via Forbes. Kalshi data from its public API. The highlighted row is today's plan.
Kalshi sports · last 24 hours
Biggest moves today
Sports markets whose price moved most since this time yesterday, on real volume. One line per game or fight, showing the side the price moved toward.
Quiet day so far
No sports market on Kalshi has moved 1¢ or more on 100+ contracts since yesterday. This fills in as prices move.
Checking Kalshi’s sports markets.
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The Trade Smart path · 5 lessons · free
Trade small. Cash out on purpose.
Five short lessons, about 5 minutes each, with a tool in every one. Start with the bankroll, finish with fast markets.
- 01
Bankroll and units
Your bankroll is money you could lose without touching rent. One unit is 1 to 2% of it, and no single position gets more than 5%.
Start lesson 01 - 02
Taking profits
Write the entry, the sell target and the hold rule before the event. How a Kalshi sell order fills, and what happens when it doesn't.
Start lesson 02 - 03
Prices and fees
22¢ means about 22%. The spread and the fee move your break-even, and an 85¢ contract can only make 15¢.
Start lesson 03 - 04
Tilt and loss limits
Money limits set in advance work better than willpower in the moment. Raising stakes after a loss is the warning sign.
Start lesson 04 - 05
15-minute markets
Strike, window and the 60-second settlement average. Why near-50¢ coin flips bleed fees, and why breaks between windows matter.
Start lesson 05
21+Lessons teach sizing, stopping and reading prices. They aren't betting advice and there are no paid links inside them. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
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X
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The Desk Column
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Where we trade
The apps we use
Every grade on this site uses Kalshi prices, wherever you trade. Which apps you can join depends on your state, and age limits vary by app.
Prediction market
Kalshi
CFTC-regulated exchange where you can sell before the event ends. Every price and grade on this site comes from Kalshi.
Visit KalshiPaid linkWe may earn a commission if you sign up. It never changes a grade.
Available in most US states. Check Kalshi's eligibility page for yours.
Sports prediction market
Novig
Sports-only and peer to peer: you trade against other users instead of a house.
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21+. Not every state; check Novig's list before you sign up.
Prediction market
Fanatics Markets
Prediction markets inside the Fanatics app, next to its sportsbook and casino.
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State and age limits vary. Check the app.
Prediction market
DraftKings Predictions
Live in states without a legal sportsbook, including California, Texas and Florida.
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State and age limits vary. Check the app.
Pick'em fantasy
PrizePicks
Pick more or less on player stats. No selling early here, so it's for props we'd hold anyway.
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Not available in every state; minimum age is 18 to 21 depending on the state.
Disclosure: links marked "Paid link" can earn us a fee if you sign up. It never changes a trade, and every trade is graded on Kalshi prices no matter where you trade. PM Countdown isn't affiliated with or endorsed by any of these companies. Disclosure policy
21+State and age limits vary, and some states restrict these apps. Only risk what you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.
Plans
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Memberships open 90 days after the first graded trade, so you can judge the public record before any price exists. Prices below are planned and shown as planned.
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Questions
Before you trade
How does cashing out work on Kalshi?
There's no cash-out button. You sell your contracts to another trader, either right away at the current bid or with a sell order at your target price that fills if the market gets there.
What if the target never trades?
Then the position is held, and the contract settles at $1 if it happens or $0 if it doesn't. That result goes on the record like any other.
What does 22¢ mean?
A YES contract at 22¢ pays $1 if it happens, so the market puts it at about 22%. Buying at 22¢ and selling at 35¢ makes 13¢ per contract before fees.
Does Kalshi list 5, 30 or 45-minute Bitcoin contracts?
No. As of Sep 19, 2026 Kalshi's public API lists 15-minute and hourly Bitcoin contracts. Our 5, 30 and 45-minute tabs are layouts of those contracts, and each one says so on the desk.
Is this betting advice?
No. We publish our own plans and the math behind them for information and education. Size anything you do as money you can afford to lose, and set a loss limit before you start.
Are prediction markets legal where I live?
Kalshi and the others are federally regulated, but some states are challenging them, and each app has its own list of states and age limits. Check the app before you sign up.
How does the site make money?
Labeled sponsor placements, paid links marked "Paid link", and later a membership. None of them change a plan or a grade. Disclosure policy
What is Market of the Day?
One real market a day. You log your own fair value first, then see ours, the live price and our reasoning. It's saved only on your device, and there's no bet involved.
21+Only risk what you can afford to lose. Set a money limit before you start and stop when you reach it. Gambling problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or call, text or chat with 1-800-MY-RESET. Responsible gambling guide